PWR · NYSE Critical Infrastructure · Grid & Large Loads
Quanta is becoming the critical-path contractor for the convergence of utility, generation, and large-load investment. A record $48.5 billion backlog and management's path to more than double adjusted EPS by 2030 support a premium compounder case, with a base fair value of $810.
One-minute investment view
Core thesis
Utilities, generators, and large-load customers need transmission, substations, generation interconnects, and on-site electrical and mechanical systems at the same time. Quanta's craft-skilled workforce and end-to-end delivery platform make it one of the few scaled partners positioned across that entire buildout.
Evidence
FY2025 revenue grew 20.3%, adjusted EBITDA reached $2.88 billion, and free cash flow reached $1.67 billion. Q1 FY2026 then delivered 26.3% revenue growth, 36.2% adjusted EBITDA growth, and a record $48.5 billion backlog.
Variant perception
Management's $2.4 trillion addressable market through 2030 and goal to more than double adjusted EPS are supported by utility programs, generation additions, large-load construction, supply-chain investment, and disciplined acquisitions—not a single data-center cycle.
Operating case
The base case starts with management's raised 2026 outlook and then moderates growth while allowing scale, self-performance, and higher-value engineering and large-load work to lift adjusted EBITDA margin toward 12%.
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $28.5B | $35.0B | $40.5B | $46.0B | $51.3B | $56.5B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $2.88B | $3.57B | $4.35B | $5.10B | $5.90B | $6.78B |
| EBITDA margin | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 12.0% |
| Free cash flow | $1.67B | $1.80B | $2.40B | $2.95B | $3.55B | $4.30B |
Valuation
The record backlog converts, utility and generation programs remain durable, and large-load capabilities lift mix while operating leverage and cash conversion improve.
Base case · USD billions
Implied share price
| WACC \ g | 3.75% | 4.75% | 5.25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $760 | $925 | $1,060 |
| 7.5% | $690 | $810 | $890 |
| 8.0% | $635 | $725 | $785 |
Point-in-time operating and valuation snapshot
| Company | Ticker | Revenue growth | EBITDA margin | EV / EBITDA | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services | PWR | 22.7% | 10.2% | 28.2x | 1.9% |
| EMCOR Group | EME | 15% | 10% | 21x | 3.3% |
| Comfort Systems | FIX | 24% | 11% | 33x | 2.0% |
| MasTec | MTZ | 13% | 8.5% | 17x | 2.5% |
| MYR Group | MYRG | 8% | 5.5% | 20x | 2.0% |
Catalysts and risks
Potential catalysts
Converting $48.5 billion of backlog with stable or improving margins would turn exceptional demand visibility into earnings and free cash flow.
Transmission expansion, grid hardening, gas generation, renewables, and storage all require Quanta's engineering, procurement, construction, and maintenance capabilities.
Dynamic Systems and Quanta's electrical platform can expand content per project across data centers, semiconductor fabs, and advanced manufacturing facilities.
Principal risks
At roughly 45 times the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, slower bookings, margin pressure, or a lower terminal multiple could overwhelm continued earnings growth.
Master service agreements represented 45% of March 2026 total backlog, and customers can often change volumes or terminate work on short notice.
Quanta ended March 2026 with approximately $5.5 billion of net debt after an acquisition-heavy 2025, raising the importance of integration, cash conversion, and disciplined capital allocation.
Sources and methodology
Quanta annual financial statements supplied by the user for 2017–2025, the FY2025 Form 10-K, and the Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release.
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Updated July 2026 scenario DCF anchored to Quanta's raised 2026 outlook, March 2026 backlog, and 2026 Investor Day goal to more than double adjusted EPS by 2030. The $810 base case assumes sustained mid-teens growth, 12.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, $4.3B of 2030 free cash flow, a 7.5% WACC, and 4.75% terminal growth; all forward estimates and peer multiples are illustrative.
Independent student research for educational purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Verify all financial inputs and model assumptions independently.