Core thesis
Power and Electrification can compound through a constrained supply cycle.
Gas turbine slots, services, grid equipment, and electrification exposure position GE Vernova at several bottlenecks in global power investment.
GEV · NYSE Power Infrastructure · Electrification
GE Vernova
Power demand, turbine scarcity, and grid investment create a long-cycle backlog opportunity, but the premium valuation requires clean conversion into margin and free cash flow.
One-minute investment view
What matters and what the market may be missing
Variant perception
The story is margin mix, not only backlog growth.
Power funds the model, Electrification compounds, and a smaller Wind drag can lift consolidated cash generation faster than revenue.
Key debate
How much execution is already embedded in the multiple?
Track order quality, pricing, backlog conversion, Power services, Electrification margins, and Wind losses.
Operating case
The model is driven by backlog conversion, pricing, and segment mix.
Revenue Free cash flow
Power is the cash engine, Electrification is the growth platform, and reduced Wind losses create the path to high-teens consolidated EBITDA margins.
| Metric | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E | 2030E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.5B | $43.0B | $47.0B | $52.0B | $58.5B | $65.0B |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $3.10B | $5.70B | $6.90B | $8.50B | $10.3B | $12.2B |
| EBITDA margin | 8.5% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 16.3% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| Free cash flow | $2.25B | $4.00B | $5.40B | $7.20B | $8.60B | $10.2B |
Valuation
Scenario-tested DCF, not a single-point answer.
Base fair value$1,400Waiting for live quote
Revenue CAGR10.9%Forecast period
2030E EBITDA margin18.8%$10.2B FCF
Power pricing holds, Electrification scales, and Wind becomes less material as backlog converts into high-quality cash flow.
Enterprise-to-equity bridge
Base case · USD billions
PV of FCF
$26.9B
PV terminal value
$310.5B
Net cash / other
$44.8B
Equity value
$382.2B
($337.4B enterprise value + $44.8B net cash / other)÷0.273B diluted shares=$1,400 fair value
DCF sensitivity
Implied share price
| WACC \ g | 2.85% | 3.85% | 4.85% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $1,233 | $1,397 | $1,639 |
| 8.5% | $1,141 | $1,400 | $1,501 |
| 9.0% | $1,064 | $1,240 | $1,386 |
Risk-free rate4.3%Beta1.05Equity risk premium4.0%Net cash / other$44.8B
Comparable-company context
Point-in-time operating and valuation snapshot
| Company | Ticker | Revenue growth | EBITDA margin | EV / EBITDA | FCF yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova | GEV | 23.0% | 8.5% | 48.0x | 0.8% |
| Siemens Energy | ENR.DE | 15.0% | — | 22.0x | 1.5% |
| Schneider Electric | SU.PA | 7.0% | — | 19.0x | 2.7% |
| ABB | ABB | 6.0% | — | 18.0x | 3.1% |
| Emerson Electric | EMR | 5.0% | — | 17.0x | 2.8% |
Catalysts and risks
What can change the investment case.
Potential catalysts
Next 12–24 months
Backlog conversion
Clean delivery of long-cycle equipment and services can turn order visibility into revenue, margin, and cash.
Multi-year
Power scarcity and services
Tight turbine availability and a growing installed base can support pricing and recurring service economics.
Ongoing
Grid and data-center investment
Electrification demand can compound as utilities, renewables, and data centers require more grid equipment.
Principal risks
High sensitivity
Backlog conversion slips
Supply chain, permitting, delivery timing, and working-capital requirements can delay revenue and cash flow.
High sensitivity
Wind remains volatile
Policy changes, offshore project economics, and quality costs can dilute Power and Electrification strength.
High sensitivity
Valuation discounts success
After a major rerating, GEV needs continued order strength, pricing, and margin expansion to defend the premium.
Sources and methodology
Dated research, clearly separated from the live price.
Company filings and research inputs
Legacy GE Vernova dashboard using public company materials where available; FY2025E–FY2030E values are scenario estimates.
Live source first, saved quote second
The dashboard requests Yahoo Finance first and Stooq second. The dated saved quote appears only if both live requests fail.
Base case plus scenarios
Legacy Power, Electrification, and Wind forecast with an intentionally calibrated $1,400 DCF target; all forward values are illustrative.
Research disclosure
Independent student research for educational purposes only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Verify all financial inputs and model assumptions independently.